aztecwildsmegaways|广发证券戴康：看好越南股市的三大逻辑

Source: Dai KangAztecwildsmegawaysThe strategic world of

Dai Kang CFA Guangfa Securities Development Research Center

Managing Director, Chief Asset Research Officer

We are optimistic about the three logic of the Vietnamese stock market:

(1) Logic 1: debt cycle: Vietnam is in a relatively healthy positionAztecwildsmegawaysWith a younger population structure, it has become an important support for the dominance of medium-and long-term equity assets. At the same time, from the perspective of PB-ROE, the overall estimated water level is moderate.

(2) Logic 2: urbanization rate: enter the fast lane of 30%, 70%, become an important force to support the medium-and long-term economic background, and promote the accelerated adjustment of the industrial structure.

(3) Logic 3: per capita GDP: drawing lessons from the experience of South Korea in 1988, Malaysia in 1990 and Thailand in 2001, we will usher in a medium-and long-term aggregate opportunity after passing this critical point. Vietnam is at this historic point!

Logic one: debt cycle: in a relatively safe position

Debt cycle: Vietnam has gradually entered the normalization stage after harmonious deleveraging, is in a relatively healthy position in the debt cycle, has a younger population, and has become an important support for the dominance of medium-and long-term equity assets. At the same time, the overall valuation level of the Vietnamese stock market is at a relatively moderate level.

Logic 2: urbanization rate: enter the fast lane of 30%, 70%.

Urbanization rate: at present, Vietnam starts to accelerate after the urbanization rate exceeds 30%, which is due to the strengthening of urban attractiveness, while the problems such as population constraints and resource constraints are not obvious. The urbanization rate by 2022 is 38.Aztecwildsmegaways.8%, which is still in the critical stage of rapid expansion, has become an important force supporting the medium-and long-term economic background.

The significance of the urbanization rate exceeding 30% also lies in the adjustment of the industrial structure. The employment share of the tertiary industry will accelerate upward, driving the medium-and long-term strategic opportunities of the service industry. Vietnam is at this critical point!

Logic 3: per capita GDP: total opportunity after exceeding US $10, 000

Similar economies in East Asia show that the equity market ushered in total opportunities after the per capita GDP exceeded US $10, 000. For example, South Korea in 1988, Malaysia in 1990, Thailand in 2001, China in 2012 and Vietnam in 2019, taking the above time points of various countries as the starting point, the trend after the standardization of the stock index shows that the equity markets of various countries have ushered in medium-and long-term strategic opportunities after the above time points. At present, Vietnam is at this historic point!